Conte, Macron and Merkel demands for asylum processing centers outside Europe giving asylum in EU would lead to millions coming, Conte demands for obligatory and automatic relocation system of asylum seekers inside EU would re-start a 2015 style crisis of millions coming

Conte, Macron and Merkel demands for asylum processing centers outside Europe giving asylum in EU would lead to millions coming:

I have read demands by Conte, Merkel and Macron wondering whether they even do any kind of analysis before demanding political choices about what the consequences of those political choices would be.

In short Conte and Macron and Merkel demand that EU should start giving out asylums in Europe from asylum processing centers outside of EU in origin and transit countries where asylum seekers originate or through which they travel.

Conte, Macron and Merkel want that it should be possible to claim asylum in Europe from the other side of the Mediterranean and have talked about starting these asylum centers giving out asylums in Europe in Libya, Niger and sub-Saharan nations and origin countries of asylum seekers.

Starting these centers in Africa giving out asylums in Europe would lead to immediate rush of millions or tens of millions of asylum seekers to these centers since people would no longer have to save money to pay smugglers and they would no longer need to risk drowning in crossing the Mediterranean sea or travel through Sahara to get to Libya.

Also since these would be close to origin countries of asylum seekers or even in the origin countries of asylum seekers as demanded by Conte the millions and tens of millions of asylum applicants would be people who most likely would qualify for asylum. For example putting such a center in South-Sudan or near it would guarantee millions of south-Sudanians asking for asylum in Europe and most would get it.

Likewise putting such a center near Eritrea would lead to most in Eritrean army coming to seek asylum since already tens of thousands of Eritreans desert eritrean army, travel through Africa and cross Mediterranean risking their lives after paying smugglers a fortune because EU countries have made a choice to give eritrean army deserters asylums in Europe because they would be punished for deserting Eritrean army if they returned to Eritrea. Putting such a center near Somalia would lead to millions of somalis coming to claim asylum in Europe because some parts of Somalia still have some problems with Al-Shabaab and european countries continue to give many somalis asylum despite most of Somalia being safe and African Union troops keeping Mogadishu area safe to civilians. Putting such an asylum center near Congo would cause many congolese to come claim asylum because parts of congo still have some conflicts. On top of this many African countries currently hosting millions of refugees would of course have an incentive to empty out their refugee camps in these EU asylum centers and for example Kenya has millions of refugees living there because they have both south-Sudanese and Somalians living long term  in Kenya in refugee camps and these would be immediately attracted to EU asylum processing centers giving out asylums in Europe if such a center would be opened in Kenya or near Kenya..

Then of course if such asylum processing centers giving an asylum to Europe would be setup in Africa the question by international community would be why no asylum centers in Syria, Turkey, Iraq or Yemen and Afganistan because these are also origin countries of asylum seekers. If EU setup such a center in Turkey millions of the current almost 4 millions Syrians living in safety in Turkey would make an asylum claim to get to Europe and get all that countries like Germany and Sweden and others give to accepted asylum seekers like generous welfare and free apartments. In Turkey one needs to work to get money and one needs to work to pay for an apartment. Turkey gives free tents with heaters and free food and free schooling in refugee camps but less than 10% of syrians in Turkey are in these refugee camps and over 90% work and pay for their own life and pay for their own apartment.

Putting such an asylum center giving out asylums in EU in Syria would cause millions to claim asylum despite most of Syria now being peaceful since ISIS  and rebels control only small territories, putting such an asylum center giving out asylums in EU in Iraq would cause millions to claim asylum despite ISIS having been totally defeated in Iraq and most of areas in Iraq being peaceful, putting such an asylum center giving out asylums in EU in Yemen would cause millions to claim asylum because in Yemen the situation is really bad with Saudi Arabia and allies attacking Yemeni houthis and houthis attacking back, putting such an asylum center giving out asylums in EU in Afganistan would cause millions to claim asylum despite most of Afganistan being peaceful etc.

So to sum it up what Conte, Macron and Merkel demand would be irresponsible and would cause millions and tens of millions of people to claim asylum in EU from these asylum centers outside of EU giving out asylums in Europe in origin and transit countries of asylum seekers. This would further inflame the politics in Europe.

Even if there would be an initial limit on how many of the people getting asylum from these asylum processing centers outside of EU would be brought to EU per year still the millions that would surely make asylum claims and millions that would surely get asylum would create a massive pressure to increase the amounts of people taken because EU had given these people asylums so the end result would be millions coming to EU.

Also the countries where these asylum processing centers would be placed would be under massive stress because of the hundreds of thousands and millions coming for each center and these centers would create new migration routes and enable new smugglers inside Africa or in Middle-East.

Once started this policy would be politically very difficult to cancel because the situation that had been created and this would cause further destruction of public opinion in regards to European Union and even more unpredictable political results in Germany and France and all around EU.  Italy situation would most likely worsen and lead to even more radical politicians coming to power because since Conte had publicly demanded these “asylum centers” outside of EU Salvini and Di Maio would get blamed for what happened.

I wonder whether League’s Salvini and 5 Stars Di Maio understand what their chosen Prime Minister Conte is demanding? If they do not understand what Conte is demanding then these populists need to concentrate less on tough talk and more on thinking how to solve the problems they promised to solve and to which italians gave them an electoral mandate. Salvini saying Italy can not take one more person when his chosen prime minister Conte demands EU asylum processing centers in origin countries of asylum seekers giving out asylums in Europe including Italy is just incredible disconnect between political choices and their likely consequences from the current italian government.


Conte demands for obligatory and automatic relocation system of asylum seekers inside EU would re-start a 2015 style crisis of millions coming

Conte has demanded obligatory and automatic relocation of asylum seekers coming to Italy without thinking through what this would cause.

If there would be automatic and obligatory relocation of asylum seekers from Italy around EU this would mean that Italy would be as desirable country to arrive in EU as Greece was in 2015 when Greece government led by Syriza and greek Prime Minister Tsipras decided to stop detention of asylum seekers and release everyone previously put in detention (Reuters, February 14, 2015 :Greece pledges to shut immigrant detention centers) and allow over a million people pass through Greece during 2015 and avoid registering 99% of them. Greece government by Syriza only registered little over 11 000 asylum seekers in 2015 (pew) meaning Syriza and Tsipras let over a million asylum seekers go through Greece without registration to seek asylum in other countries mainly Germany, Sweden, Austria and other western european and northern european countries that give out generous welfare benefits and free apartment if one gets their asylum claim accepted. Hungary and Slovenia and Croatia also had to deal with the consequences of this political choice by Tsipras and Syriza with disturbances, crimes and everything else over a million mostly male asylum seekers caused while traveling through.

Conte demand of automatic and obligatory relocation of asylum seekers from Italy around EU would make Italy as desirable as Greece was in 2015 because one would be guaranteed to get through Italy and most ending up in welfare countries but since Conte wants these relocations to be obligatory this means Slovenia, Croatia, Hungary, Czech, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Spain, Portugal etc would also need to take these relocations despite them not being desired destination countries like Germany, Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Norway, Finland, Denmark etc. are due to generous welfare benefits.

Since if these kinds of automatic and obligatory relocation plans would be setup they would obviously apply also to Greece so that would cause rushes of people to both Greece and Italy comparable to 2015 and would cause a repeat of 2015 crisis with millions coming expecting to get through Italy and Greece to welfare paying countries. Turkey has now stated by Erdogan and his main opponent Ince that since the situation in Syria is now peaceful in most of the country that syrians should start returning to peaceful areas of Syria from Turkey. If obligatory and automatic relocation system of asylum seekers by EU would be in place in the future many syrians out of the almost 4 million syrians currently living in Turkey would decide to go to Greece instead if that meant getting to Germany and Sweden and around EU countries through an obligatory and automatic EU relocation system of asylum seekers.

In 2015 the syrians that came from Turkey to Greece and then traveled to Germany and Sweden were already SAFE when they were in Turkey but since Germany and Sweden offered 100% acceptance of their asylum claims and generous welfare money and free apartment  that followed this and Greece had completely opened the borders with a political decision by Syriza and Tsipras and also Merkel demanded borders to be kept open through Europe as her political decision many syrians decided to go from Turkey to Greece and onward to Germany and Sweden and on a human level this is understandable because if one country is offering a tent and food and other is offering an apartment and money without working and telling there is no limit on the number of asylum seekers the country will take then it is obvious many will choose the more generous offer.

Italy and Greece are not themselves attracting people to come because they do not provide generous welfare and free apartment after asylum acceptance like welfare countries and in Italy’s case the fact that many have come to Italy and many continue coming to Italy is caused by couple of political decisions by the previous Italian Prime Minister Renzi and his democratic party government.

First Renzi decided in 2013 to start rescuing asylum seekers boats from near Libyan coast after one boat had sunk near Italy and drowned hundreds of people and this decision by Renzi led to many more people coming because smugglers could charge less and still make more profits because Italy took care of most of the trip and they could use even less sea-worthy boats and asylum seekers were willing to pay for trips in boats that looked like they could sink soon because they thought Italy would come pick them up and since less supplies were needed on trips this meant more people could be crammed into the boats and ships. The decision to save people from drowning was the right one but deciding to bring everyone saved to Italy was a stupid political decision that just made smugglers profits larger and encouraged and enabled more and more people to come to Italy and Europe.

Then once more people were coming Renzi failed to register people on a massive scale so that even more people came when they heard one could get through Italy without registration meaning they could seek asylum in one of the welfare paying countries. Previously part of the people coming to Italy managed to avoid registration but under Renzi this reached a massive scale so that in 2014  after Italy had started the sea rescues helping smugglers Italy saved over 170 000 people from the sea but only registered 70 000 meaning over 100 000 were “lost” by the italian government. Well of course these were not lost they just decided to go seek asylum in countries more generous than Italy. (Newsweek 4/21/2015 Italy Is Allowing Migrants Who Survive the Voyage to ‘Disappear’ Into Europe) Of course each of those 100 000 Renzi let go through told their families and friends back home that one can get through Italy with no registration and even more people wanted to come.

This massive failure by Renzi led to France starting strict border checks on their border with Italy by Hollande in the summer 2015 and starting to stop un-registered asylum seekers on the border so that they could not seek asylum in France or travel through France to seek asylum in other EU countries. Even though currently Salvini is bitterly complaining about this policy started by Hollande and continued by Macron ( Salvini: “He, who lines up the police at (the French-Italian border at) Ventimiglia should not get on Italy’s back,“) this policy by France has actually helped Italy because people stopped by France at French border send messages to their family and friends that one can no longer get through Italy and that one can not reach those countries where they want to seek asylum easily through Italy and partly thanks to these strict border checks by France the arrivals to Italy have been dropping 2016 and 2017 and look set to continue to drop even in 2018 so instead of demanding  obligatory and automatic relocations (which would increase the numbers of arrivals to Italy masively)  and instead of demanding open borders (which would increase the amount of arrivals to Italy) Salvini should make less insults to Macron about him drinking champagne and concentrate on solving the problems instead of making them worse.

France having tough border checks on their border has helped Italy despite the populists not seeming to realise this.

In Greece’s case the fact that Austria and Slovenia closed their borders in early 2016 and Croatia and Serbia and Macedonia closed their borders soon after led to the arrival numbers to Greece crashing when message spread that the Balkan route to Austria and Germany was closed, the Turkey agreement was just icing on the cake but the biggest drop in arrivals happened when images from Idomeni spread and made clear that borders were closed and after that going from Turkey to Greece meant staying in Greece when before going from Turkey to Greece had meant getting to Germany.


How EU could solve the immigration problems in 10 easy steps and return to regular politics instead of a wave of populism that has followed previous political mistakes:

  1. Greece and Italy need to register EVERYONE coming and make sure the message spreads that one can NOT get through Italy and Greece to welfare paying countries.
  2. People need to be saved from drowning but continually bringing them to Europe and helping smugglers business is stupid, people should be saved to Tunisia or Algeria and then given a ride to UNHCR refugee camps operating in Africa, this would end the drownings and the smugglers business within weeks saving many lives and people would also stop risking their lives on the trek through Sahara that they now do because they want to reach Libya because they dream of getting to Europe and to Germany and other welfare countries through Italy. Salvini is right in that NGO ships waiting in Libyan waters or on the edge of Libyan waters for smugglers boats to arrive and turning of their tracking systems is immoral and needs to be stopped. People need to be saved but they should be taken to Tunisia or Algeria and then given a ride to UNHCR refugee camps in Africa.
  3. All systems of relocating arrivals inside of EU attract more people to EU. whether they be obligatory and automatic like Conte wants or nominally voluntary or activated in a crisis like some EU drafts (when there is a lever to activate a system to get from Greece and Italy to Germany and Sweden etc. that lever will be activated without a doubt sooner or later) or limited in number (when for example  250 000 get through Greece and Italy to welfare paying countries this will mean them all telling their friends and family which will attract another over 500 000 to Greece and Italy forcing EU to increase the numbers if these kinds of systems are built or letting Greece and Italy get all the problems) all systems of relocation attract more people to come to EU.  For example the first EU relocation decision in 27th May 2015 for 40 000 people from Greece and Italy was the signal that massively increased the arrival numbers to Greece and Italy in 2015 so instead of helping them the first burden sharing system of EU relocations of asylum seekers caused more problems for Italy and Greece.
  4. There should be NO asylum centers in Africa or Middle-East giving out asylums in EU because this would create problems  for the countries hosting these centers and would mean millions coming to EU which would destabilise the political system and parts of societies.
  5. Disembarkation platforms outside of EU would be a good idea ONLY if only people saved at sea are taken to them and the saved people will be transferred to UNHCR refugee camps in Africa or Middle-East. If the disembarkation platforms would give quick asylums in EU then there would be a new smuggling business of putting boats to sea near the disembarkation platforms waiting to be saved and hundreds of thousands people would do this if one would quickly get asylum from the disembarkation platform to get to EU countries. giving out asylum in EU from outside of EU is a stupid idea whether it is done in disembarkation platforms or whether it is done in asylum centers as demanded by Conte, Merkel and Macron.
  6. Failed asylum seekers need to quickly removed from EU and to help in this they should be put in detention because letting them walk the streets is a security risk and them traveling to live in other countries underground economy is unfair to other countries so EU should demand all countries put all failed asylum seekers in detention. EU should also help in removing failed asylum seekers by telling countries that refuse to take their own citizens back or refuse to give them needed documents should expect that their business elite will not be getting visas from any EU country. Some countries refuse to take back their citizens that are forcefully removed so in that case using detention would be good that it would make more people return voluntarily instead of spending time in detention.
  7. EU should have a safe country list of countries whose citizens asylum claims are considered baseless and EU should help for example in sending every Gambian and Nigerian and Senegalese and Algerian and Moroccan back to Gambia, Nigeria and Senegal and Algeria and Morocco immediately after they arrive in Italy or other EU countries. These are economic migrants that should be returned.
  8. Instead of taking resettlement refugees from UNHCR refugee camps like some countries are doing they should be supporting the refugee camps in a more effective way. With the cost of bringing 1 resettlement refugee to live in EU country with welfare and free apartment and language lessons and education etc. and hopefully finding work in 5-10 years over 100 refugees can be helped in the camp. Also the resettlement of refugees to EU countries from UNHCR refugee camps leads to more people deciding to wait at the UNHCR camp whether they will be picked next year or the year after that to go to Europe instead of returning home to rebuild their lives and this creates the permanent refuge camps where people choose not to leave despite their previous home areas becoming peaceful. UNHCR refugee camps would benefit much more if the money spent on taking resettlement refugees would be spent in better equipped camps, better schooling and creating and opportunity to work for the people in the camp by creating a tariff free area near the camp that could manufacture things and export them tariff free to EU area because this would enable people to have stable work and to save money to go rebuild their homes and lives after the situation they were fleeing has been solved. Also the money saved in quitting the resettlement system could be used to give people rebuilding grants so that if the situation has calmed down and it is now safe to go rebuild ones home then the camp will provide a rebuilding grant to buy building materials and 12 monthly payments to cover life expenses until the people returning have rebuilt their home and have found jobs.
  9. The main reason Germany and Sweden and other welfare paying countries are so popular among asylum seekers is the fact that they give out generous welfare and free apartment after one gets asylum in them and this is in fact what is attracting many asylum seekers to Europe. EU countries need to agree that countries stop attracting asylum seekers and instead of giving out generous welfare and free apartment countries need to arrange place to live so that many asylum seekers live in 1 apartment instead of giving each one their own apartment and instead of giving welfare money straight after giving asylum countries should limit welfare money to either citizenship or to work history so that unless one has a citizenship of the country or in the case of immigrants unless they have work history in the country they would not be entitled to welfare money. This would lead to situation where asylum seekers who got asylum would not end up passively collecting welfare money and would need to instead find work and in the cases where they could not find work there should be support in the form of food ingredients and etc. In some cases welfare money given by countries to people who got asylum is no doubt used to send money back home to relatives from whom the asylum seeker borrowed money to pay money to the smuggler.
  10. Giving EASO aka European Asylum Support Office more power by making EASO modules and EASO training mandatory for EU countries immigration authorities and giving EASO power to also decide asylum cases would not be a wise decision because the agency is currently in turmoil regarding their personnel and more importantly the EASO Training and EASO Modules are originally developed in Sweden whose immigration policies have been among the most loose in EU so giving EASO more power and letting EASO decide asylum cases would be like all EU countries copying the immigration policies of Sweden. (“EASO Traning Curriculum (formerly called European Asylum Curriculum, EAC). Starting originally as an initiative from Sweden) Also the EU directives that have continually demanded quicker processing of asylum claims have had the effect of making Europe more appealing as a place to seek asylum because before the EU-directive it took over 18 months to decide asylum applications but with the Eu-directive this was first shortened to 12 months, then to 9 months and in 2015 the average processing time was 6 months and it just happens that when asylum application processing was quickest in early 2015 that the biggest rush of asylum seekers in the history of EU happened. For a person getting asylum a quick asylum process is attractive and a quick asylum process is in fact a pull factor to decide to come to Europe so in that part the EU directive also played a role in what happened in 2015.


The problems of 2015 and the consequences of those 2015 problems that are still affecting Europe and political choices and political mistakes which led to those problems must not be repeated.


M. Lindfors




Statements by Conte, Macron and Merkel

Merkel and Conte:

They also agreed that EU asylum applications should be processed in origin or transit countries before would-be migrants enter the bloc, she added. (source 1.)

Conte and Macron:

“The concept itself of the ‘state of first entry’ must be rethought. He who puts his feet in Italy puts his feet in Europe,” said Conte, who was a law professor before he became premier.

Conte said Italy is working on a proposal for a “radical paradigm change” in Europe’s approach to managing mass migration that includes creating “hotspots” in the most common countries of origin and departure to identify asylum candidates.

These “centers of European protection” would “anticipate and speedup identification and requests for asylum,” he said. (source 2.)


“Europe has allowed selfish closures by many States who offloaded responsibilities and difficulties on others, our country first and foremost. “We will ask vehemently that the Dublin Regulation be surpassed to achieve real respect of a fair division of the responsibilities and the creation of obligatory automatic relocation systems for asylum seekers” (source 3.)

Italy government:

Italy will propose the creation of European protection centres in migrants’ countries of origin and transit in order to assess asylum requests outside Europe, among other measures, at Sunday’s information meeting of EU leaders in Brussels, government sources said on Thursday. (source 4)

Italian government on dublin returns:

According to the Dublin Regulation, if an asylum seeker whose request has not been completed leaves the first country they arrived in and go to another EU member State, the latter can relocate them back in the country where they landed. During the talks, Conte said Italy was unwilling to accept the “second reception” of asylum seekers in this way, the sources said. (source 5.)


“We will forcefully seek the overcoming of the Dublin Regulations in order to obtain the effective respect of the principle of equal distribution of the responsibility to set up an automatic system of obligatory re-distribution of asylum seekers.”

“We are not and will never be racists. We want procedures that determine refugee status to be certain and speedy, in order to effectively guarantee their (refugee) rights.” (source 6)

Conte and Macron:

Conte said they had agreed that “we must turn the page on migrants” after he proposed setting up hotspots in countries of origin and transit including Libya, Niger and other sub-Saharan nations. (source 7.)

Conte and Macron:

Speaking alongside French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, Conte said it was “time to turn the page” on the dispute and focus on a “radical paradigm change” in the way the European Union deals with mass migration into the bloc.

Conte said Italy would present a proposal to overhaul the EU’s asylum and immigration rules to the bloc in July. Setting up centers for processing EU asylum claims in African countries would be part of the proposal, he said. (source 8)

Conte and Macron:

French President declared that in migration policy he supports the Italian proposal to set up branches of asylum authorities in Africa in order to start asylum procedures in the countries of origin and transit.(source 9)

Conte and Macron:

Conte called for “European protection centres” to process asylum claims in migrants’ countries of origin — currently mainly Africa — “before their arrival in Europe”.

“We must prevent these voyages of death,” he said of the perilous crossings in flimsy boats.

His comments were echoed by Macron, who said EU members should send immigration officials “to the other side” of the Mediterranean. (source 10)

“We cannot take in one more person,” hardline Interior Minister Matteo Salvini told the German weekly Der Spiegel. “On the contrary: we want to send away a few.” (source 11)
Conte and Macron:

“We should create European centres in the countries of departure,” Conte told a press conference, referring to African nations that have seen an exodus towards Europe in recent years.

His comments were echoed by Macron, who told reporters he supported the idea of “branches of our asylum agencies to tackle this question on the other side” of the Mediterranean. (source 12)

Conte and Macron:

Conte said Italy is working on a proposal for a “radical paradigm change” in Europe’s approach to managing mass migration that includes creating “hotspots” in the most common countries of origin and departure to identify asylum candidates.

These “centers of European protection” would “anticipate and speedup identification and requests for asylum,” he said. (source 13)

Conte and Macron:

Macron said he agreed with Conte that the solution was to beef up the Frontex force that guards the EU’s external borders, more centers in African countries to screen genuine refugees, and a re-writing of the Dublin accord on asylum to better share the burden across Europe.

Conte called for people wanting to migrate from Africa to the European Union, including asylum-seekers, to have their requests processed at centers to be set up in their country of origin.

“We must change strategy and set up a system coherent with European Union values, reinforcing protection of human lives,” Conte said. “We must prevent the journeys of death. We must create European protection centers in countries also to speed up the process of identification and request for asylum.”(source 14)

Conte refusing dublin returns:

Conte told European Council President Donald Tusk in Rome on Wednesday that it was unthinkable for Italy to also have to take migrants that have made secondary movements, given that it already is widely recognised as being the country most exposed to primary migrant flows. (source 15)

Merkel and Conte:

Merkel said her talks with Conte and other European leaders in coming weeks would focus on the question of how the European Union could enable a stable government in Libya and how its coast guard could be better trained.

“And how we can, if necessary, already carry out asylum-related proceedings there. These are all questions that we will discuss in the coming months and where we want to work very closely together,” Merkel said.

Conte has spoken of the need for European-run immigration offices outside Europe to prevent “voyages of death”

(source 16)

Conte and Macron:

Mr Macron proposed building migration centres in countries of departure, including Libya, from which many people attempt a dangerous sea crossing to Europe – an idea he has raised in the past.

He said many of those attempting the journey had “no possibility of obtaining asylum in Europe”, but die in the attempt – or spend months living in poor conditions only to be sent home.

Processing asylum claims in applicants’ home countries could avoid those problems, he said.

Mr Conte, the head of Italy’s new populist coalition government, agreed with the plan, calling for widespread reform of the current system. (source 17)





















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